Replacing Tolaj: Transfer price and 10 replacements analysed

Alberto Lauciello returns to give his verdict on who should replace Tolaj

Welcome back to One Team In Devon. This issue comes in two parts: James does some vibe stuff and talks about Tolaj’s fee before friend of the newsletter, Alberto Lauciello, Argyle fan and professional football analyst, offers his top picks for replacement options.

The second part is free, but you need to subscribe to One Team In Devon to read. You can do that below:

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I can’t lie – I love summers without Argyle. I need some time without the emotional investment, without stressing about midweek trips to Leyton Orient, and without needing to check my phone for the latest additions to the injury perma-crisis (which somehow continues).

This summer there’s a sense of assured calm that we’ve not had for years. The Cleverley era promised stability, and exactly what we have.

The past few seasons have been unsustainable in terms of sheer chaos. The last two summers have seen managerial appointments. The summer before that meant preparation for the Championship. I’ve forgotten what it’s like to have a normal pre-season, where you know most of the players’ names in the post-training camp photos.

The assured manner of our business so far this summer, and in January, also adds to that feeling of calm. I feel that a certain amount of trust has been restored between the club and fans. There’s the feeling of a steady hand guiding the transfer computer that doesn’t require fan hyper-scrutiny.

But losing Tolaj, and having £4m+ to spend, has somewhat broken the calm.

Was the price right? (tl;dr: maybe)

It seemed inevitable that Lorent Tolaj would leave, and in the financial position that we find ourselves, cashing in was the right thing to do. If we are to trade our way to stability and success, then we need to bank 400% returns when they arise.

So the question becomes: what was a fair value for Tolaj?

It’s very difficult to analyse the value and fee for a player. There is so much we don’t know, in terms of the deal terms, the player’s attitude to the deal, and a myriad of other intangibles. But I had a go anyway, with a fairly basic and rudimentary analysis.

My analysis of strikers bought by Championship sides from League One over the past two years showed £3.5m to be at the top end. You can see those transfers in blue. So in terms of selling from League One, this is a strong piece of business.

But an analysis of Tolaj’s goals/90 (adjusted for the league), age and profile, shows the potential for higher value. The rumoured £4m sits below this very rough matrix based on scoring performance (one of many factors).

Tolaj also was a spectacularly rare, well-rounded attacker – which is evident from Alberto’s analysis on replacements below. All of this leaves me feeling that we could be £1m light on Tolaj.

However, it’s essential to remember that this money could be baked into the add-ons, which we have no visibility on. How achievable those add-ons are, I would presume, is factored into the price.

Crucially, I think Bristol City and Argyle will both be happy with the business, which speaks volumes.

Although given his immediate impact on pre-season (against Swindon), it’s Bristol City that might be feeling the happier right now.

Replacing Tolaj

To look at the options for replacing Tolaj, friend of One Team In Devon and professional football analyst Alberto Lauciello returns.

Alberto has drawn up a dossier of 10 replacements Argyle could look at. Check out his X account.

DownloadAlberto analysed 20 leagues over the past three seasons to identify similar players who had accumulated at least 900 mins of action.

Aside from goalscoring ability, targets were selected on their ability to mirror Tolaj’s attributes for providing assists, his ball-carrying ability, and aerial ability.

Alberto then looked at key statistics and how they compared to Tolaj, and filtered out any unrealistic options. You can see the weightings below and how each candidate was analysed:

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Alberto’s top 10 Tolaj replacement choices:

1. Aaron Connolly — Leyton Orient, 26

Lauce’s #1, Connolly is proven at League One level – a forward who scores, provides assists and carries the ball forward, with the bonus of a dangerous direct free-kick. He isn’t an aerial threat, but he’s genuinely versatile, able to play main striker, second striker or left wing. At 26, he’s experienced with a little room still to improve, and he’s just recovered from a long-term injury. Orient won’t let him go easily, but he’s in his final contract year and may carry a release clause.

2. Ali Al Hamadi — Ipswich Town, 24

The strongest profile on the list – and had three games at the World Cup for Iraq. Despite two difficult seasons, he has a top physical profile and is a prolific ball carrier. At 24, he already has experience and can still improve, potentially to Championship level. Al Hamadi can operate as a main, roaming or second striker, and occasionally on the wing. He had a long injury last season on loan to Luton, but Ipswich would only sell for a high offer, likely on a considerable salary.

3. Archie Goodwin — Charlotte FC, 21

The highest-ceiling option. Now short of minutes in MLS, Goodwin was a key player for Adelaide United in 24/25 – an efficient finisher and an aerial threat with a good sense of position and real acceleration. At just 21, he has the scope to improve. He plays primarily as a main striker, occasionally on the left, with no worrying long-term injuries.

4. John McAtee — Bolton Wanderers, 27

The experienced, ready-made pick. Although he struggled last season, McAtee was a decisive player for Bolton in 24/25 and Barnsley in 23/24, a dynamic, comfortable on the ball and a genuine chance creator, if not an aerial presence. Perhaps in the mould of Curtis, McAtee is 27 and most likely at his peak, with plenty of League One experience behind him, and can play as an offensive midfielder or a second/roaming striker. With Bolton promoted, McAtee is in his final contract year, so a transfer could be feasible.

5. Lamin Colley — Diósgyőr, 33 (free agent)

The free-transfer option. A consistent goalscorer and 195cm tall, Colley is a strong and dynamic target man with a good sense of position, though his assist record is lacking. At 33, he’s vastly experienced but realistically a one-to-two-season solution.

The pure data option

Josh Stones — York City, 22

The closest stylistic match to Tolaj, with remarkable finishing, aerial strength and chance creation in a full National League season. But how well he can translate his skills to League One will always be a risk. The biggest problem is that, in a remarkable turn of loyalty that Argyle have never enjoyed, he’s just signed a new five-year deal with York, but presumably with release clauses attached.

Also consider…

Ryan Hardie — Huddersfield Town
We all know about Hardie. At 29, he’s not going to deliver sell-on value – and while he’s an electric #9 and proven talent, he doesn’t have the physicality that Cleverley seems to favour.

Joe Hugill — Kilmarnock, 22
A remarkable finisher in the Scottish Premiership with good assisting, positioning and first touch, and at 188cm the frame to become a bigger aerial threat.

Barney Stewart — Falkirk, 22 (loan)
Only two seasons into his career but already a remarkable finisher and, at 188cm, a genuine aerial threat — though slow, with limited assisting and ball-retention.

Alassana Jatta — Notts County, 27
Two seasons of remarkable finishing despite taking few shots, and at 192cm he should be an even bigger aerial threat — pacey and strong, with passable link play. Just-promoted Notts won’t sell easily; he’s in his last contract year.

An honourable mention

Jayden Wareham – Exeter

The name on the lips of the #pafc hashtag is worth a mention. Wareham is an excellent, instinctive finisher and poacher – but has a totally different profile to Tolaj. A good option yes; a like-for-like replacement no. And that’s why he’s not figured in the analysis.