It's just one game
I deleted the popular social network X.com from my phone last week. Like everyone, I was pretty gutted about what was a fairly disgraceful performance against West Brom – but just as disgusted by the online reaction.
West Brom was awful. And we are right to expect better when playing at home – and to voice that criticism. I also have no real issue with complaints, leaving early or even booing. But to make calls for the manager to lose his job – and even discredit the entire strategy of the club over one game – is just reactionary and dumb.
Likewise, we shouldn’t erase those criticisms because of a win at Boro – even if the performance was as good as the Baggies game was bad.
Both are important performances on the route to what I see as the future Argyle vision and playing style.
Tale of two games
Even before the West Brom game, I had crystalised a conclusion about Foster’s Argyle in my mind. When his system and tactics are implemented properly, they can be extremely effective, but when the system fails we can look woeful.
When we press high, win the ball high up the pitch, overload opposition and create chances we are formidable.
However, we have only seen this in bursts within games so far. The 2nd half against Cardiff, first halves of both Leeds cup games, Coventry (for the most part) and Boro.
When we’re not able to win the ball high, either by poor application of the press by Argyle, or the effectiveness of opposition (or both in the case of the West Brom game), it leads to a torrent of stifling pressure, which is excruciating to watch.
These two graphics of the West Brom and Boro average position of the team shows what that looks like in real terms.
At Boro (right) we were far more advanced, with notably the holding midfield pair of Randell and Houghton occupying space much further up the pitch.
Why that was not the case at West Brom would require a better trained football analyst than me. But I don’t think enough credit has been given to West Brom for their part in that game. They are a very effective team, and what’s more, both fixtures happened to be our lowest xG of the season. Perhaps they are just our kryptonite.
But inevitably, the quality of West Brom in possession coupled with a lack of energy and impetus to get forward resulted in a loss of the tactical battle.
A great piece of analysis
https://twitter.com/AaronCuz/status/1761864124001083419
I really enjoy Aaron Cusack’s analysis on Argyle TV – and there’s a great snippet here outlining the excellent Ryan Hardie goal. I’d also point you in the way of his analysis of the Argyle “hunting in packs” press. Watch it here.
Lack of Plan B
While the departure of Schumacher shone a light on the lack of defensive organisation under his tenure, there’s no doubt that we did offer more in attack. The underlying numbers, which we’ll go through in an upcoming stats comparison piece, prove that.
As we discussed in last week’s newsletter, Argyle’s recruitment choices have played a big part in that too.
But Schumacher was an excellent in-game manager. And we’re yet to see that under Foster.
People have noticed that a key part of Foster’s in-game management is to switch out the wingbacks around 60 minutes. Wing backs are a key part of this system and the difference in Miller is evidence of that – so I don’t have an issue with him making this switch. But we’re yet to see much evidence of in-game tactical or systemic switches when we’re not playing well.
While that that is something I’d like to see developed, I can see why we haven’t done that.
Foster is implementing a new way of playing which is still a big work in progress. To switch that up and ask players to do something else could undermine those messages. I think this will be something to be developed when performances are a little more consistent.
Foster’s comments
Many also jumped on Foster’s comments after the West Brom game – and that he wasn’t critical enough of a woeful application of our game plan against West Brom. He has to learn that there’s a way to deal with poor performances, and that was not the public face we as fans want to see.
I do respect that he has taken most of the flak from that performance for the players, who in effect did not apply the tactics on the pitch. I think they repaid him at Boro.
However, I do believe we can decode some of his comments.
My takeaway from Foster’s comments was that this new tactical system, with this squad of players, will run up against better teams, and fail to match them. But overall, it will yield more success than failure.
The stats currently back it up. Tracking Argyle’s current projected points tally would see an average points-per-game (PPG) of 1.17. Foster’s PPG over eight Championship games is 1.35. So in terms of success, we are looking up the table under Foster.
Likewise, his February record ended up as 2W, 1D, 3L. Let’s face it, it should have been 3W/3L for that crazy moment at the end of the Coventry game.
But as fans we are used to being competitive in every game. So seeing us going down with a whimper against Sunderland, Leeds (although I maintain we played well for a large part of the league game) and West Brom is galling. Especially at Home Park.
Stop the count (at 45 mins)
Shoutout to this statistical curiosity that if games were stopped at half time we’d be chasing the playoffs. Does that point to squad depth? Fitness? Quality of opposition benches? Answers on a postcard in the comments section.
So what next?
The win against Boro was huge given that all the teams won around us. But we have weathered an awful run of fixtures, maintained our league position, and banished the hoodoo of West Brom.
We have also managed to get Cooper, Bundu and (hopefully) Forshaw back from injury.
I would encourage people once again to remember that we have exited January diminished as an attacking force, and to save judgements on our style until next season.
And for the next 12 games, just support the team and get survival over the line.
Another enjoyable read. Agree that we were justifiably angry after the WBA game. I rarely leave early but did after their second goal. In my defence, I’d gone straight from work and tea was a pint of Carlsberg!! Hangry!
I did not, however, resort to knee jerk overreaction. Some of that was deplorable. I agree that WBA were not given enough credit and that it was a game too far for our small squad. We will, sometimes, struggle to compete with teams with bigger, more experienced squads when the fixture calendar is congested. Think we ran out of steam second half, particularly as Albion had shown us too much respect in the first half and were ‘given instructions’ at HT.
On reflection, I said: ‘win, lose or draw at Boro, it’s the response that’s important’.
We certainly got a response. Faith restored. Bring on the Tractor Boys!! 💚
As always insightful, measured and with proper analysis. The furore after west brom was shocking!!