Ian Foster's stats analysed: Fozball vs Schumacher – and can we stay up?

Exactly how have Argyle changed under Foster? Spoiler: a lot.

Welcome to another One Team In Devon stats special – where we attempt to look at the numbers behind the performances.

We welcome back Alberto Lauciello, an Argyle fan and football analyst at DAZN, to give us a statistical overview of the Ian Foster era so far.

Alberto is at @lauce_44 on X so please follow him there. And it would mean a great deal if you could buy Alberto a coffee at the link below if you enjoyed the post. It takes two minutes for his hours of work in putting this together.

In this issue of One Team In Devon, we are taking a deep dive into Foster’s reign, and at the underlying numbers of attack, defence, and style of play.

We’ve also done an accompanying podcast episode with Argyle Life/Green and White podcast – so you can get some analysis around these stats with James, Alberto, Ben and Adam. Check the YouTube Video here (from 12pm Mon 25th) and Spotify here.

Why do we do this? Because Argyle are a data-driven operation, so decision-makers at the board, and in the analysis room will be well aware of these numbers. If we’re looking at the same data, we can a) make objective opinions and b) can hold the decisions of the club to account. It can also help us understand decisions that may be coming down the pipe.

So make a coffee or grab a beer – and brace yourself. Here’s Fozball laid bare.

Attack, goals, shots and threat

You don’t need to be Neville or Carragher to know that attacking output has plummeted under Foster. And we know that Argyle have barely registered a shot on target at home in four league games. But what about across Foster’s whole tenure?

Shots are down 41% and shot accuracy is also down 31% from Schumacher’s tenure in the Championship.

Big chances created are also down 36%, which is perhaps a better measure of how things have fallen.

xG (expected goals) is down 26% and those shots are also 14% less dangerous than under Schumacher.

We also have the fewest headed shots in the league as well. But there are signs of Foster’s ideas – even if they are leading to reduced creation. We are the No.1 team for fast breaks and shots from fast breaks – that’s up 70% from Schumacher.

xGOT (expected goals on target) is a measure how how dangerous a shot is. e.g. is it in the middle of the goal or top corner. xGOT is down 56% under Foster rank 21st in the league for the threat from their shots.

Distribution, possession and style of play

The style of play has changed under Foster – and rapidly.

Passing has been scaled back under Foster, and we play -15% fewer passes under him that Schumacher. Accuracy is also a tad down, as is possession – both around 4%.

Argyle rank 22nd for passes attempted and possession in the Championship under Foster.

We’re also the 20th worst team for passing accuracy and the WORST for passing accuracy in the opponent’s half.

Argyle’s xA (expected assists) has also fallen 31%, in line with shots taken.

Fozball sees 42% more crosses than under Schumacher, but have the fewest pulled back crosses in the league, which are typically more dangerous. That’s 66% down from Schumacher. We are also 23rd for penalty area entries, 22nd for possession and 22nd for touches into opponent box.

And here’s a really telling stat:

Argyle are 2nd for ‘launches’ in the league (hoofing it long) but have the 23rd worst launch accuracy. That’s up 61% over Schumacher. So big questions have to be asked about Foster’s instructions, when we are so unsuited to the style of play he’s trying to implement.

Tackles, defending and big chances

Foster has improved on a very weak defence under Schumacher – which presumably was his brief.

Argyle have increased tackles 20% as well as duals, although tackle success has dropped 12% overall. Fouls are up 23% as well. We’re 1st in the league for clearances, 2nd for blocks and the lowest shots on target conceded.

There’s also been a big reduction of through balls (-10%) and touches in our own box conceded (-24%).

Argyle concede 11% fewer goals under Foster and have an xGA (expected goals against) 22% lower than under Schumacher. We also concede fewer headed shots (down 35%).

Entries into our own box are down 15% from Schumacher as well.

But we still have the 5th worst xGA (expected goals against) in the division under Foster.

We are conceding more from outside the area – and there’s a disparity between goals conceded and threat, which means there can be some focus on goalkeeping – with more shots flying in from distance.

This is a big turnaround, nearly as large as the drop in attacking output.

Morgan Whittaker

• Touches: -18.12%

• Touches in opposition box: -29.43%

• Shots: -37.01%

• Shots on target (SoT): -16.28%

• Expected goals (xG): 0%

• Goals (G): -2.33%

• Expected assists (xA): -43.75%

• Assists (A): -10.53%

A big part of the narrative has been the effect of Fozball on Morgan Whittaker. And perhaps this is one of the most interesting aspects of his tenure.

Whittaker’s game involvement is down in pretty much every metric except his xG (expected goals) which remains exactly as it was under Schumacher.

Of course, his xA (expected assists) at nearly half of what (-43.75%) it was, will be a huge part of the lack of attacking threat.

There’s also another side note: After the fallout post Sheffield Wednesday, Whittaker’s touches doubled in the Blackburn and Preston games, which seems like a tactical shift to get him more involved in the game.

He had 64 and 70 touches respectively, while in his first 10 games under Foster he averaged only 34.70 touches.

The relegation battle

We showed this same graphic in the last stats newsletter - so where does Foster’s Argyle lie?

Despite goal-scoring prowess, Schumacher’s Argyle would have been a statistical outlier should we have stayed clear of the dotted line. You can see that marked in the top right, with very high xG and very high xGA (expected goals for and against).

Foster’s changes have made us very much the average for a team in the relegation mix. We’re almost bang in the middle.

And it also illustrates that either a small shift in attacking prowess OR a further shift in defensive resilience would move is into good company of previously surviving teams.

At the moment it’s balanced on a knife edge, just like Argyle’s Championship status.

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