Back in November, we were soundly beaten 3–1 by Huddersfield, sending us to the bottom of League One. Only the football gods could conspire for us to return the favour by the same scoreline, catapulting us further into the play-off picture.

When Bim Pepple parodied the Hardie celebration in front of the Devonport, and Argyle dismantled a play-off rival studded with our former stars, it signalled the start of a new era. We threw off the shackles of what could and should have been in the Championship, and restored belief that we can get back there again.

This is a new Argyle side, with new characteristics, new characters, and new heroes. New crowd favourites. Bim Pepple, Ronan Curtis, Alex Mitchell, Malachai Boateng, Mattius Ross – and, who could have thought it, Tom Cleverley.

The turnaround

Whatever happens this season, the scale of the Tom Cleverley redemption arc needs to be studied.

There were so many elements of the football club on fire at the same time that it was inconceivable that it could be meaningfully rectified. The defence, attack, the entire style of play, the relationship with the fans, squad cohesion, confidence, the injury crisis, home form, away form.

Even as our form improved, I still griped that he seemed unwilling to change things tactically. But Cleverley’s mid-game shift to 4–3–3 to turn the game against Doncaster, and back to 4–4–2 against Huddersfield, soon put paid to that. Dispatching Cardiff and Stevenage in very different ways shows we’re far from a one-dimensional outfit.

TC’s communications have improved just as much as his football. And in a communications masterclass, Cleverley put to bed the first half of the season by shouldering some responsibility for the start to the season. It was an olive branch to those of us who called for his head.

And here’s an interesting thought exercise: If we had been simply passable for the first half of the season, would we have made the wholesale changes that have led to this stunning run of form?

Bringing on back the good times

Winning games breeds harmony. It’s easy to talk up notions of “One Argyle” when we’re on good form. But there’s a swagger about us now, and it’s not just the result of regular wins.

Mitchell and Curtis’ horse antics. Bim parodying Hardie. The season debut (to my ear) of “We’re on our way” and “The Greens are going up” around Home Park was the starter gun on the official play-off push.

We have a great chance, with three goal scorers on our books up front, and a wonderful balance to the team. Unlike 2018, when we ran out of players to mount a play-off challenge, having so many to return is exciting. Adding Tolaj, Galloway, Watts, Pleggy, and even Ibrahim to the mix will only strengthen our hand.

We’re second in the points tally across January, February and March. NTTT Podcast said only “unforeseen circumstances” could stop us reaching the play-offs.

My only caveat: with our track record this season, the unexpected should be expected.

But I’m still determined to enjoy the run-in. Enjoy those warm, sunny April games with something to play for. And enjoy myself as much as the players seem to be.

Cup final disappointment – the true spirit of Argyle

The Argyle Women’s side lost in the FAWNL Cup Final at Loftus Road. In the spirit of the 2022/23 men’s team, let’s hope they bounce back from the heartbreak and use it to get the job done in the league. It would be incredible to have a WSL2 team in the city.

As you can see, the table is really tight, with second place going into a play-off with the Northern division for promotion. Argyle have Oxford (H) and Real Bedford (A), while Bournemouth and Watford face-off on the final day.

With the huge growth of the sport and clear support for what Marie Hourihane has built this season, a successful women’s side is one of the biggest opportunities for the club. COYG!

Finally, before I sign off, I wanted to express my heartfelt condolences to Graham Carey and his family after his wife Rachel passed away last week.

This is the third newsletter I’ve written since calling for the board to sack Tom Cleverley in November. The other two went unpublished, and I opted to quietly observe – and not risk jinxing – what’s been a steady and quiet turnaround over the busy Christmas period.

18% of the season’s fixtures come in the December period, so it’s a good time for struggling sides to turn around their fortunes – and that’s exactly what Argyle have done.

And it’s been a good call to stay silent. Edgy, undeserved wins and fortunate points have turned into real momentum, culminating in Argyle’s best performance of the season with a statement win at Peterborough.

The impossible turnaround

I didn’t decide to call for Cleverley’s job lightly, and I couldn’t see a way he could repair the toxic situation. The Northampton performance was, in my eyes, unsurvivable.

I had criticised Argyle’s approach since August, citing a lack of identity, purpose, and tactical clarity early on.

I strongly believe that the terrible run of form around that dreadful Exeter game could have been mitigated had Cleverley been less inexperienced and shown greater tactical clarity.

Before the Exeter game, I asked to see evidence of a tactical masterplan for creating chances and passion from both the players and staff alike. And arguably, this has been at the heart of the turnaround.

The Peterborough game was the first time I could point to Cleverley tactically outthinking his opposite number – and to devastating effect. With a balanced side where deficiencies didn’t have to be mitigated, a confident Argyle were able to express his ideas on the pitch.

Let’s see where we are at the end of the season before rushing to any more judgments. We will lose games, and let’s hope any drop-off in performance isn’t met with a hysterical reaction.

But if we finish strongly, there should be a marked acknowledgement from fans that the board got a big call correct.

The formation of an identity

What excites me most is that Cleverley has finally started to impress an identity on this team.

Possession-based nonsense is out, and he’s turned us into a side that’s good at pressing high – one that’s physical and increasingly street-smart. At the beginning of December’s resurgence, I couldn’t point to any demonstrable attributes of this squad, but we now have a blueprint for how we intend to create chances.

Yes, Peterborough may have fallen into our trap to an extent that others won’t. But these attributes will serve us well in any game in this league – and even beyond.

So what has turned things around? And how should we view the criticism that players were always good enough?

Joe Ralls is the obvious change. Around the same time as Derek Adams returned as DoF, Ralls hit fitness and has finally brought balance to the side. There are other contributors, too. Watts’ and Amaechi’s fitness helps tactical fluidity, but I believe the switch from Mumba to Curtis levels up the specific requirements of this team in a 4-4-2.

We should appreciate that at the start of the season, too many players were simply finding their feet at the level at the same time.

Oseni, Pepple, and Ross are all players who have admitted taking time to become accustomed to the physicality of League One. We started the season without Mitchell, Pleggy, Tolaj, and Ralls.

Oseni has shown himself to be a promising finisher, and Pepple’s hold-up play has been some of the best at the club since Ryan Taylor over the past four games – and he’s scoring important goals.

There’s no single answer to how Cleverley has turned the tide, but very few clubs and managers achieve such a feat.

Now for the final piece – unity

The job isn’t finished yet. We’re good at disrupting teams, but we’re yet to forge an identity at home. This is the next big test. And it’s crucial to the final piece of the puzzle: creating a true bond between players, staff, and fans.

I had previously claimed that we’d done that at Luton. But I was wrong – partly because of what came after, but also because bonds can’t be created away from home. They must be forged at Home Park.

PPG nerds claim that we need about 1.82 PPG for the rest of the season to reach the play-offs. The PPG since Derek re-joined the club? 1.82 PPG. So the play-offs are there, but we need more than just form and a fit Laurent Tolaj to get there.

Cleverley could do with watching some tapes of Ryan Lowe. If we beat Luton this Saturday, I want Clevs fist-pumping in front of the Devonport.

If Argyle are really to forge something this season, we must strap in, get behind the team, and enjoy the ride.

The results are coming – and I want to see our players and staff enjoying winning at home. And if they do, maybe Home Park will start enjoying it too.

Welcome back to One Team In Devon, as the rudderless ghostship Mayflower floats towards the haunted waters of League Two.

The fact that Tom Cleverley has remained the head coach of Plymouth Argyle for this long will confuse football historians for centuries.

The whole club feels like some kind of strange psychological experiment. What happens if you run a football club with no one in charge and everyone learning on the job? What happens if you keep a failing coach on forever in the name of stability?

Our CEO is not in post, and while that doesn’t stop him issuing statements of support, he seems ‘unconcerned’ about our frankly unacceptable league position. If we’re to be rescused by recruitment in January, then it should be remembered that we have parted ways with our head of recruitment, with the spectural Tom Randle working his notice, as we stand less than two months from the transfer window.

This is NOT normal.

As a club, we feel more dysfunctional than the likes of Sheffield Wednesday, who at least have people in post to make sound decisions.

And as I’ll explore, the need for Tom Cleverley’s dismissal has long been clear.

Enough is enough

I’m on the record here as not being particularly plussed about the signing of Cleverley. He didn’t fit my desires for the style of football Argyle should play.

But I still believed, as everyone did, that Argyle had got a manager capable of a safe consolidation season in League One and the return of some kind of normality. How wrong we all were.

However, an analytical look at Cleverley’s short time as Watford boss should have surfaced warning signs.

Cleverley ran a decent Watford side into the ground and finished the 24/25 season bottom of the form table, with gems such as Imrân Louza at his disposal. Even in Argyle’s tepid 0-0 draw at Vicarage Road, the football on offer from Watford was sterile, boring, and ineffectual. After February, he won just two league games. His calendar-year stats for 2025 will mark him as one of the worst coaches in the EFL.

At Argyle, the football he has served up since the first game of the season has been clueless and ineffectual – bar two performances, one of which he wasn’t on the sidelines for. There’s no pattern or vision to what we’re trying to achieve – and no one can really identify any coherent plan of how we attack or defend.

While injuries at key times in key positions have hampered Argyle, especially the lack of 10s, it doesn’t explain the whole story. Argyle lost their first four games of the season playing a horribly implemented 4-2-3-1, devoid of movement, positional awareness, or attacking ideas.

The hallmarks of those performances are still evident today – and they are systemic. In other words, they are a product of Cleverley’s coaching. Argyle are deep yet played over the top at will. They have no width yet offer so much space for the opposition. They offer no movement or dynamic play, cannot overload an opposition, are too slow in attack, yet are constantly stretched, out of position, and running backward to defend goal.

As a midfielder in his prime, Cleverley’s use of Argyle’s own midfield is mystifying. The two central midfielders, whether as part of 3-4-2-1, 4-4-2, or 4-2-3-1, are always standing on top of the two centre-backs and struggle to advance the ball. This also causes confusion when defending, with players falling over each other in key moments.

Cleverley has no idea of his best team. The constant changing of the line-up shows that he is simply searching for something – but can’t see the answers. Our trio of wins came after a move to 3-4-2-1, long after it was obvious the change was needed to bring Mumba into the game. But after Caleb Watts was injured and there were no natural 10s available, he hasn’t adapted back.

Mumba and McCabe have struggled to get starts despite being two of our most talented players.

To Cleverley, everyone is a left back. Even young striker Joe Hatch, recalled from Taunton to save our League One campaign, was slotted into a left wing-back position against Huddersfield. Ayman Benerous, an attacking midfielder lauded for his gifted technical ability in pre-season, has been inexplicably deemed a left wing-back. Owen Dale, a proven attacking player with “over 200 games of experience,” has been played predominantly at – you guessed it – left wing-back. But one of the best left wing-backs in the league, Bali Mumba, has been played anywhere but.

If the on-field performances and tactical decisions weren’t enough to prove Cleverley has no idea what he’s doing, his behaviour and words should also provide enough grounds.

Failing the One Argyle test

Paul Berne’s rationale for keeping Cleverley is stability, and the mythical One Argyle ethos was also cited. But Cleverley fails every test of the One Argyle ethos.

Since the first game of the season, Cleverley has waged a war of empty word soup against David Fox and the recruitment team. The idea of everyone pulling in the same direction was undermined from the start.

Cleverley has constantly moaned and griped that the squad that has been assembled is not good enough. He’s bemoaned the quality of players and their mentality in public. He called out Bradley Ibrahim in the press early in the season. At every juncture, he has taken aim at the squad, the recruitment team, and the board. It’s little wonder the players have no confidence or fight.

This squad is certainly not the finished article. Some mistakes have been made in signing projects and players with questionable injury records. But to be bottom of League One after 15 games is a frankly negligent performance as a head coach. To serve up the football seen so far, and to deflect the blame for that onto everyone but yourself, is shameful.

It’s time to end this insanity and get a grip of this football club. It might already be too late.

It’s been one step forward and at least two back for Tom Cleverley’s Plymouth Argyle since the last newsletter – and I’m still struggling to connect with this team on an emotional level after a huge post-Luton regression.

Cleverley has been dealt a bad hand with injuries, and just as the long-awaited shift to 3-4-2-1 looked like it had helped us turn the corner, key injuries have again stunted our progress.

We look sorely light on attacking players with Owen Dale and Benarous seemingly (and confusingly) disliked by Cleverley.

It continues the theme of constant flux and upheaval, which was always likely to cause early-season problems. Both on the pitch and in the boardroom, the club is in a cycle of renewal that won’t be completed any time soon.

I wrote before the season started that the sheer upheaval was likely to mean the season was a write-off. That piece was intended as a call for calm and patience – and I’m trying my hardest to remember that. Cleverley is correct about one thing: this is a new, young team, plagued by injuries, and one in a state of flux.

But while there are valid excuses, we have regressed to the state of stale, directionless football that plagued our early game. Middling xG, poor defensive stats, 24th out of 24 teams for tackles in the final third tell us what the eye can see: this team needs a rocket up the proverbial – and its problems are systemic.

Crab-like sideways passing, a lack of intensity, and a lack of coherant plan for creating enough quality chances are problems that must be addressed now.

The bedding-in period is now over. Improvement must be seen. Another defeat could test the patience of even the most cognisant Argyle fan.

The need to inspire

Cleverley must now show that he can both inspire and mastermind this young team to a performance at St James’ Park.

I’ve not seen any evidence in his drab press conferences, nor the drab performances after conceding, that Cleverley can fire up this team. Why are we so lacklustre when chasing games?

His Watford team went down 3-0 to Luton away from home last season, despite the Hatters being one of the worst teams in the division. Watford did win the home leg 2-0 later that season.

We remember too clearly Lowe failing to grasp the magnitude of the Devon Derby.

I also need to see that he can tactically outthink Exeter. The stale sideways passing of the first 10 games has returned. Even at a goal down in the final stages against Wimbledon, the team couldn’t find urgency or take the initiative to be direct.

Exeter won’t mess around if they smell blood.

The need to be inspired

Then there’s the players. Rightly or wrongly, the guiding star for our recruitment was players who wanted to play for Plymouth Argyle. Personal betterment or the club being a stepping stone to better things wasn’t seen as an acceptable level of commitment. Supposedly, players needed to buy into the club on some kind of emotional level.

Well, here we are. Placed 21st in League One in late October, in the relegation zone, and facing our rivals under the lights away from home.

I need to see that they are ready for that challenge.

I’m not one to ordinarily beat the drum for desire or commitment, but in this case, I need to see something from this group. The lack of aggression and urgency in this team worries me. It’s time to show us more.

Maybe, just maybe, we have lift-off on the Cleverley era.

It’s now two wins from two and somehow three from four – but something happened at Luton last Saturday that was bigger than three points on the board.

I don’t think I’ve been alone in feeling slightly disconnected from the team this season. It’s hardly surprising with so many new faces and, at times, some truly hopeless football.

But over 100 minutes at Kenilworth Road, this group and the Green Army forged a bond. A display of passion and grit, amid hopeless self-sabotage, made for a modern-day classic of an away day. Players showed their character and quality: Tolaj, Ibrahim, Mitchell, Ross, LAH – and older faces such as Sorinola, Mumba and Galloway, too.

It makes you wonder if this is what we have to go through for Argyle to win away from home. But it’s a step in the right direction. And if we can navigate yet another injury crisis, maybe it’s lift-off for 25/26.

Three four three

Over a month after I wrote that Tom Cleverley should reflect on his team structure and system, he has substantially tweaked both to mastermind a fine win against a highly regarded Stockport team and gain a rare away win at promotion-favourites Luton.

I’d started to have huge doubts about Cleverley as a tactician, even before the Cardiff debacle. While I respect that he needed to give his ideas time to work, the change in system was so obvious, it boggles the mind that it didn’t happen sooner.

The change has yielded two fine Bradley Ibrahim performances in midfield, and after comments about his performances in the first seven games, it perhaps indicates that more of our transfer business should be reassessed in a functioning system before criticism.

Indeed, the run of results has quietened online dissent about the window.

I wrote this in a pre-Stockport draft of this newsletter, and would say that the revised system and ideas addressed many of these issues:

Until now, I’ve seen nothing from his set-up or ideas that enamours me. We’re set up with six defenders and four attackers and ne’er will the two meet. There’s almost no overlapping of full-backs, no forward runners, and no overloads. There seems to be little blueprint on how chances will be created, and one of the only league goals we’ve scored came from Boateng blindly running at a defence of mannequins.

While Luton wasn’t pretty, it was resilient and still created enough good chances to score three goals away from home. The four goals against Stockport might have largely come from set plays, but we earned those from good interlinking wide play that forced corners and throw-ins from dangerous overloads, and good crossing positions.

Regardless of whether these improvements have come simply from the shape or from a change in approach and instruction, it bodes well. Yes, there has been luck – but we’ve been able to carve out dangerous chances.

There’s no denying it, however. The injury situation is bleak with Watts now out seemingly long-term and Szucs also reportedly until the New Year. That means more square pegs in round holes to cover the two 10 positions, which is now just up to Mumba (still better at LWB for my money) and Owen Dale. Tegan Finn will get game time there, and we could see Law McCabe. But just as we seemed to get some stability, it feels like we’re back in trouble.

Fans forum

If anyone doubted how serious the business of club communication is, this year has proved the case. Argyle’s communication with fans has been well-intentioned, but has inadvertently contributed to a toxic atmosphere, not helped by the terrible football served up by Cleverley’s hopeless 4-2-3-1 crab-like passing system.

That exacerbated transfer window frustrations, which, on the evidence of the past few games, may or may not be true.

The “top six budget” brag from pre-season that ignored the impact of player turnover and upheaval, and the supposed £10m of inbound transfer fees led to the “where has the money gone?” rhetoric.

Chest-thumping rhetoric after relegation, information but not detail, as well as inconsistency and contradiction, have meant that it’s taken two fans forums and a chairman’s letter to wrestle back control.

And we got those details in abundance in the most recent meeting. I’m not going to recount the finances here, but to me, the crux of the problem was this.

I don’t believe fans, myself included, realised that our player trading model was designed to cover day-to-day losses. You can call this out in the comments if I’ve been naive, but I felt the club was designed to be sustainable without the random ins and outs of transfers, and that they were somehow ring-fenced from day-to-day business, and all about growing as a club.

That slightly bubble-bursting realisation that the vast majority of our player gains were just there to cover losses sat heavily with me the day after the fans’ forum.

We’ve allowed, through circumstance and naivety, key assets to go for too little.

To get less than £5m for Adam Randell, Michael Cooper, and Ryan Hardie is madness. I feel that any other club in the EFL could have netted £10-£15m from those players alone.

How differently our future would look with that money.

So we must try to do it again. Foulston Park gives us better chances to develop talent in the men’s and women’s game.

And next time, we must do better.

Welcome to another One Team In Devon, where things have started, predictably and tiringly, in atrocious fashion.

I need to point you to my pre-season newsletter, where I warned that this season could be a write-off. The premise was that it could feasibly take three windows (or more) to build a promotion-capable squad – and I still think that is the case.

One Team in Devon

It's hard to admit but 25/26 may already be a write-off

I was out of the country working some frightful hours when Tom Cleverley was appointed. I could have burned the midnight oil for a newsletter, but after two years of drama and fatigue, the fact there was little original to say spoke volumes. It was overwhelmingly good news…

Read more

10 months ago · 7 likes · 4 comments · James Stables

And while it’s still early, I also didn’t think we’d look this far off.

Recruitment woes are well documented, and I think it’s only worth reflecting on that when the window closes. There’s time for the club to pull things around.

But all I’d say, at this stage, is that Plymouth hasn’t moved location. While location has always been a challenge, we’ve never struggled to attract quality players before, and we should be offering a realistic push towards Championship football. Something seems very wrong.

Tom Cleverley broke his diplomatic trend of saying whatever people want to hear to claim that internal reflections were needed, after coming away from the Toughshit Arena with barely a shot on target.

But in this newsletter, I argue that while Cleverley faces the significant challenges of a long injury list and slow recruitment to date, he is also tying one arm behind his own back tactically.

Square pegs, round holes

The assessment that we played well in the opening 20 minutes was undermined by the fact that we rarely looked threatening, and there appears to be no coherent plan to create quality chances and score.

While Cleverley bemoaned squad quality (despite talking it up through pre-season), structurally the team feels ludicrously unbalanced, and some answers seem to be available.

Makeshift full-backs, a diminutive front four, and players out of position just make for a squad that feels wrong. We seem to operate as a back six with two sitting midfielders that rarely venture forward, and a front four that in turn feels outnumbered.

While I appreciate the lack of a proven number nine (plus, in my opinion, at least two more positions) – I have to question how effective this unicorn signing would be in a system that has so many obvious flaws.

Palsson is provably unsuited in a four, and there’s clear evidence of it from last season. Szucs, playing on the left of the two CBs for whatever reason, also looks unnatural. Galloway, who has been a solid LB cover historically, is keeping Mumba out of the game, lacks pace against speedy wingers, and loses his headers.

Granted, we have McKenzie out and should have signed a replacement loan CB, but it seems obvious to play these in a back three – possibly with Wiredu stepping out with the ball, and free wing-backs to join our attack.

The next piece of the puzzle solved by a back three is Mumba. I can’t recall Mumba putting in a quality LW performance for 90 minutes. He should return to LWB and provide a front three with added support. The middle two in a 3-4-3 can also complement the setup, with Ibrahim staying deep and Boateng, or indeed Benarous, advancing to provide fluidity, in something that approaches a front five or six in possession.

While this team needs time to gel, the data shows that Argyle is a 3-4-3 team. Schumacher and Muslic used this to great effect, while it has struggled under Schumacher in the Championship, Rooney, and now seemingly Cleverley. Perhaps the two or three incoming players can complete this 4-2-3-1 system, but it doesn’t seem right to me.

So, while there are clear flaws in what, at the moment, is a disastrous transfer window and mysterious injury crisis (why does everyone have bandaged wrists?!), the assessments of what needs to change should start closer to home.

I caught up with OTID friend and football data analyst, Alberto Lauciello. He’s previously contributed to One Team in Devon for data-led insights, and this time, he’s pulled back the curtain to show how analytics can help identify players who fit Cleverley’s stated profiles.

A quick disclaimer: this is an independent project, carried out in Alberto’s spare time. That means a limited dataset and no insider access — but it does include 30 leagues around the world.

All analysis is based on public statements from the club and coaching staff. Player recommendations also take into account the league's stature, the club’s perceived standing, and an estimated transfer budget, with a focus (where possible) on loans or free agents.

And you can download his whole report here:

Recruitment Plan

1.16MB ∙ PDF file

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The current squad

The 4-2-3-1 Shape

Let’s start by looking at two hypothetical line-ups, based on the current squad — though it's worth noting that modern football is less about fixed positions and more about roles and responsibilities.

Despite Tom Cleverley mentioning this as the likely starting point, Alberto suggests the current squad might be better suited to a 3-4-3 (or 3-4-2-1). But sticking with the 4-2-3-1 for now, a few positional notes:

• Joe Edwards can play RB or CM

• Sorinola and Mumba are interchangeable at FB

• Szucs can operate at RB

• MacKenzie and Wiredu are CB options

• Benarous is a midfield utility

• Mumba will push forward to LW or RW

• Paterson works better wide left, cutting inside

• Watts can operate on the right (RW/RAM).

Switching to the 3-4-3

• Szucs can play RWB

• Wiredu and MacKenzie can both drop into a back three

• Mumba is again an option higher up as LW, RW, or AM

• Benarous remains the flexible midfield wildcard.

Even beyond the long-awaited striker, the squad still feels short in key areas – despite the club’s messaging about wanting a smaller, more adaptable squad. That may work tactically, but it limits depth and exposes gaps.

Scouting the #9 position

Alberto’s criteria:

• At least 900 minutes

• At least 6 defensive actions per 90’

• At least 0.35 npxG per 90’

• At least 45% shots on target

• At least 20% goal conversion

• At least 31% offensive duels won per 90’

• At least 33% aerial duels won

• Free, on loan or max £2 mln fee

• Preferably “homegrown” status

Here’s the shortlist based on data from selected 2024/25 leagues, grouped into tiers using Opta’s ELO model. The filters were strict, but by relaxing one or two metrics, we found five credible candidates:

5. Alessandro Debenedetti

A tall, physical striker with poacher instincts and a strong defensive work rate and was on loan last year. He’s an aerial threat and holds the ball well, though link-up and finishing need polishing. Still raw — promising, but a gamble.

Value estimate: £700k

4. Lamin Colley

At 31, Colley offers experience and physicality. He thrives on crosses, attacks space well, and should be effective in League One. A low-risk, plug-and-play option. Homegrown, too.

Value estimate: £450k

3. Yakou Méïté

Championship veteran, 29, and strong in the air with high defensive intensity. Best as a second striker but serviceable as a lead forward. Presses well, though his recent finishing form is patchy.

Value estimate: £1m

2. Callum Paterson*

Aged 30, Paterson brings immediate value. Hard-working, good on set pieces, and versatile across forward roles. High energy, pressing-focused. Solid short-term option. His physicality and presence would fit well into our system, although his xG output it less pronounced for a #9 leading the line alone.

Value estimate: £650k

*Has now signed for MK Dons in League Two.

1. Donát Bárány

At 24, Bárány is a physical, high-motor forward who thrives in direct systems with excellent xG output. A consistent scorer, reliable off the ball. Good value for clubs needing effort and good end product.

Value estimate: £450k

New #10 / Attacking Midfield

Alberto’s criteria:

• At least 900 minutes

• At least 0.3 npxG+xA per 90’

• At least 9 defensive actions per 90’

• At least 1.7 shots per 90’

• At least 2.7 successful dribbles per 90’

• At least 0.95 shots assisted per 90’

• At least 0.74 smart + key passes per 90’

• Free, on loan or max £2m fee

• Bonus if he’s a set piece specialist

• Preferably “homegrown” status

Same process, new focus. Here are five potential AM/W options that fit the manager’s likely demands:

5. Morgan Bokele

Age 21, rapid and dynamic winger. High expected goals and assists per minute. Great dribbler and presses well. Still mostly a bench player — needs consistent minutes to develop.

Value estimate: £650k

4. Emir Bars

At 20, Bars brings flair and end product. Versatile (LW/AM), defends well, takes set pieces. Shone in the Eerste Divisie. Still raw in terms of tactical discipline.

Value estimate: £400k

3. Kamari Doyle

Only 19, but technically sharp with real L1 experience. Offers creativity, set-piece threat, and homegrown status. Can play CM or CAM.
Value estimate: £450k

2. Jamie Donley

Another 20-year-old with strong League One loan credentials. Creative, high-assist player with great vision. May struggle with physicality at times. Championship interest might complicate a move.

Value estimate: £1.6m

1. Raymund Molnár

Age 22, versatile attacking winger with strong vision and pressing work rate. Needs more game time to sharpen final-third decision-making. Physicality suits wing roles.

Value estimate: £600k

Conclusion

The exercise aims to show how recruitment teams use data to identify targets and show that options do exist – based on data alone.

It doesn’t take into account age and value. Or the personality tests that go into building a cohesive squad.

Alfie May and Callum Paterson both featured on the list, and have gone to rivals (May > Huddersfield) and even the league below (Paterson > MK Dons).

Statistically, they would make fine additions, and both attracted social media interest. But in terms of value, they would be unlikely to be sold at an equivalent or higher value.

So it begs the question – which is more important? Appreciation transfer or pure goal contributions?

Many of the players on Alberto’s list play in overseas markets. A successful hunting ground for Argyle in January (Katic, Maxi, Purchaz – and less so Baidoo ) but not so well utilised this summer. Is that a preference of Tom Randle? A reaction to seemingly ‘disloyal players’? Or simply chance?

The players are out there. But will Argyle get their men in time?

Life has a habit of coming at you fast. On the day we were relegated to the Championship, there was a buoyant air of optimism around Home Park. We had the nucleus of an excellent squad, Miron Muslic and his backroom staff, and imminent investment.

Six weeks later, we have none of those things. And in a two-part Pilgrim’s Podcast special episode, Simon Hallett painted a sobering – if unwaveringly optimistic – picture of the football landscape Argyle finds itself in.

Listen to the podcast

That landscape includes escalating transfer inflation (sadly not at Home Park), an increasing number of “haves and have-nots” in the EFL, and a growing divide between the Championship and League One. It made for a sobering chat.

“You have to take advantage of being in the Championship, and that’s the big regret that we didn’t. And getting that opportunity again isn’t as easy as many people seem to think.”

If my ear detected Simon sounding a little world-weary after a rollercoaster two years post-promotion, I could easily forgive him. Yes, managerial mistakes have been made, and risks taken where perhaps they were not necessary. But aside from tough finances, Simon’s unerring trust in people has been sorely tested, not least by Miron Muslic:

“I do think it would have been courteous to give me a call. I’ve had no contact with Miron at all since he assured me that he was 100% committed to being our head coach in League One. So I think that bridge is burned.”

Investment dead in the water

Unlike Muslic, Simon Hallett is here to stay. And his loyalty could never be tested. But he was at pains to point out that his financial limit had been reached.

“I think it does increasingly look like I'm going to be around for longer, which is fine by me. It’s not fine by some of the fans. But you know my resources, and you know we're now done. I know I've said that before, but we’re definitely done this time.”

Not only is investment “Not imminent,” but the deal that was on the table is gone. And in fact, it’s the only deal that has ever progressed beyond idle chat.

“It was at the final stages. We pulled out because there was a level of opacity in the structure of the potential buyer. That was unacceptable, and with hindsight, we should have clarified that much earlier. But we were constantly being assured that that level of opacity would be removed. It had to have been removed to meet EFL standards, let alone our own. But eventually we lost patience and we pulled out of the transaction.”

And Hallett also revealed that serious investors are not exactly banging on the door in PL2.

“We've spoken to dozens of people in the last two years. I think the number is more than 70, but the ones prepared to take it beyond an initial conversation, or maybe two conversations, have been very, very limited. We did have a bid from another group, but they were entirely unsuitable.”

Hallett revealed that funds raised for Foulston Park had been spent on the playing squad, with the confidence that new investment was imminent. That meant the home for the academy and women’s team was in danger, but that project will be funded to completion by the Argyle investors. But other, unnamed projects, presumably Home Park extension, are on ice.

“That leaves us with investment plans – infrastructure development plans – that will need to be funded or they’ll need to be postponed. The most immediate of them is the completion of Foulston Park, the development for a site that will be used by our academy and our women's teams.

The shareholders – that’s me and Argyle Green, along with the Halliday family – have agreed that we'll make funds available to make sure that can be carried through to completion. But some of the other plans that we have in the long term are going to continue to need new investors.”

The League One era won’t be free spending

With what’s estimated to be a war chest of around £10 million to spend in League One – and an enormous shopping list of players required (my maths is 18 players out and nine in so far) – fans are keen to see the club spend, especially on established strikers.

But in the aftermath of record signing Michael Baidoo, Hallett also offered insight into his take on the club’s transfer strategy. And it doesn’t seem like big spending is on the cards, and that the types of investment that have seen unproven players arrive at Home Park would continue.

“If you take the transfer fees over successive years, rather than just in a single year, there does seem to be more correlation with results and transfer fees than previously thought.

“But we will continue to hire players that we think are good value. Paying large transfer fees for players does not pay off, on average.

“We’ve recouped quite a lot of the money that we paid for Al Hajj. Baidoo – I think there are things we can learn from, such as the clause that allowed him to go out on loan. But the fact is that he didn't seem to fit in with the new manager. I think the overall learning is that we need players who have a more flexible playing style.”

A moment for Simon

I feel like I’ve done some griping on this newsletter recently, and the tone of the last one wasn’t exactly optimistic. But my points were always in the interests of fairness and setting expectation levels. Simon does much the same in his interview with Pilgrims Podcast.

But Simon Hallett is once again reaching into his pocket to secure a legacy for the club, with training facilities and an academy that could see the club fulfil its potential outside of his lifetime.

Would you trade that up for some shadowy investment bankers and a famous face?

One day, we might not have a choice. But for now, I know who I want leading the club.

Thanks to Pilgrims Podcast for the early access to the interview. Subscribe to them!

I was out of the country working some frightful hours when Tom Cleverley was appointed. I could have burned the midnight oil for a newsletter, but after two years of drama and fatigue, the fact there was little original to say spoke volumes. It was overwhelmingly good news.

Tom Cleverley was the safest, most realistic appointment we could have made, given the names linked with the job. Personally, I can’t say he, or the football I saw him play at Watford, excites me. And you better believe I would have rolled the dice on another gegenpress merchant out of 2. Bundesliga.

But I’m so jaded from the previous rollercoaster, I’m happy to see him in the hot seat. If it all goes wrong, it won’t be on the board.

“Stability and loyalty”

“Stability” and “loyalty” were buzzwords of Cleverley’s interview and first press conference. It’s darkly hilarious when viewed against an exodus of such proportions, you’d think Argyle had contracted footballing leprosy.

Players new and old can’t get away from the club fast enough. And there are now two concurrent and irreconcilable Argyles existing at once.

The Championship-era one, afflicted by poor recruitment, bad eggs, derisory relegation release clauses that undermine years of careful and skilled recruiting, and players who signed to be in the Championship shop window, with no intention of seeing out their contracts in League One.

Then there’s this reformed, sensible, shrewd Argyle – building quietly in the background, back to making long-term plays, playing the free agent market and, perhaps, doing what we do best.

There are so many themes in this newsletter that I’m going to refrain from commenting on the quality of our signings until the window closes.

But the scale of the rebuild now seems so great, it defies logic to say that our (my?) expectations of bouncing straight back to the Championship are realistic.

A huge rebuild

A reset was needed, and I’ll drive any player who doesn’t want to play for the shirt up the A38 myself.

But I think what’s scariest about the exodus isn’t just the scale or the quite dreadful money that’s being recouped in an industry renowned for spending excess.

It’s that we’re letting an excellent League One team go and, right now, replacing them with demonstrably inferior players. That’s hard to watch.

Let’s have a look at the leavers:

• Grimshaw

• Saxon Earley

• Ben Waine (now signed at League One Port Vale)

• Ryan Hardie (for a pittance)

• Bundu (free)

• Randell (for a pittance)

• Houghton (free)

• Maxi (not confirmed but likely gone)

• Baidoo (record signing, so poor he’s been shipped out on loan)

• Ogbeta (loaned out to a promotion rival)

• Al Hajj (now strongly rumoured to leave)

• Katic (loan expired)

• Tijani (loan expired)

• Puchacz (loan expired)

• Gyabi (loan expired)

• Obafemi (loan expired)

That’s 16 players leaving the club in one summer, although arguably two were already loaned out and thus replaced.

It’s perhaps not unprecedented in scale, but I’d wager it’s unprecedented in terms of impact. That’s our entire forward and midfield lines departments, and the heart of defence. We’ve barely been able to sign a striker post-pandemic, and now we need three or four.

Now factor in that the head coach and his staff are all new to the club and relatively inexperienced.

The expectation that all this business gets done, that every player brought in is a resounding and immediate success, and that everyone gels to play a brand of football that only exists inside a new coach’s brain, seems wildly optimistic. And the fixture list offers zero respite in the first month.

So when I titled this newsletter asserting that the season is likely to be a write-off, it’s not to throw my toys out of the pram or spread doom. It’s simply to say that, for everyone’s sake, it might be healthier to admit that this rebuild will take longer than one summer window.

And that success in 25/26 might be a late-season push that requires serious patience.

I’d love to be wrong. But there’s a greater chance of collective success if we park the notion of bouncing straight back up at the first time of asking as an imperative.

Hello from me – this was written a week or so ago, but I’ve been too busy watching Graham Carey play TST to publish it. Can we enter again next year?

Many, many years ago, when struggling to get a job after university, I was finally offered a job at a small local paper in Devon. After verbally accepting the job, I was unexpectedly offered another job I’d interviewed for. It was better paid, and would ultimately shape my whole career. There was only one choice. I spoke to the editor and told him I’d changed my mind, but he’d already posted out the rejection letters to the other candidates and was rightly furious.

In many ways, I feel hypocritical criticising Miron Muslic’s shot at a far bigger opportunity, despite leaving our club in the lurch.

But the sour taste left in the mouth is perhaps because Muslic himself has been proven to be something of a hypocrite. A salesman as much as a football manager, he spoke at length about commitment and integrity – and went on to show little of it himself.

But I’m not here to go on about Muslic. Instead, it’s to talk about something far more existential… Argyle’s place in the football world. And how it’s changed.

The dismissiveness of both Muslic and Schalke (who bestowed on Argyle the great honour of a friendly after low-balling our contracted compensation) couldn’t provide a more telling story about our place.

Any manager who shows the aptitude for success with our small budgets and constraints will be quickly targeted.

An existential question

And it presents an existential question many are asking:

Should we simply aim lower in favour of stability, or roll the dice? By taking risks on up-and-coming managers, are we simply creating a scenario for either success and immediate poaching, or failure?

Do we simply need a manager capable of guiding a top-budget team to a sniff of promotion, without either walking out or soiling his trousers?

It’s actually a rather depressing thought. But in my eyes, there are reasons to be cheerful.

Schumacher and Muslic have netted us around £2m in compensation – vital funds in League One, where we return transformed in just two years.

We return to League One bruised, battered, and richer. I’d like to think we’re a little more streetwise, especially after Muslic’s exit. We are many orders of magnitude better off than when we left.

The five-year plan (to be a play-off competitive Championship team) is off to an appalling start, but it is a five-year plan, not a 1.5-year one. The best chance we have is to carry promotion momentum into the Championship, and when we get back there (whenever that is), we’ll have a better idea of what to expect.

And as our resources grow, Argyle can be more resilient. With more money, we can start to negotiate player and staff contracts that leave us less exposed to the kind of managerial piracy waged by Schalke and Muslic. We can start to be the bully.

We’ve already seen this in action. Prising Caleb Watts from Exeter is a fine example. Imagine coming to Argyle because league rivals can’t match our offers. We have twice the budget size from when we were in League One just three seasons ago, and now have a top budget for the level.

So would I like to see us go safe this time around? While my head says yes, my heart secretly hopes for another gegenpressing merchant plucked out of the 5. Bundesliga with a point to prove.

Any manager who achieves success will be a target. The alternative makes little sense.

Here we go again.

It’s the time of year for end-of-season wrap-ups, and one last chance to drag over this car crash of a season again.

By any metric, it’s been one of the more entertaining relegation seasons going. But a season as silly and nonsensical as this deserves a silly and nonsensical round-up and an incredibly poor AI-generated cover image.

So here’s One Team In Devon’s alternative end-of-season awards – and you can listen to an accompanying Pilgrim’s Podcast for extra colour.

Banter moment of the season (non-Rooney)

There were so many banter moments that I decided to maximise the value by splitting them into Rooney and non-Rooney.

Straight off the bat, a clear favourite is the misspelt names on the backs of shirts that set the tone for the first part of the season. It became shorthand for the lack of attention to detail and preparation, which felt in line with an awful performance, that perhaps the team never psychologically recovered from.

Hiring Mike Phelan from footballing obscurity after Pete Shuttleworth disappeared is another strong shout – as was the combative St Dennis fan forum where we chose to announce that huge investment was imminent, only for it to transpire it wasn’t close at all. And the winner is…

Winner: Dyslexic Kitman

Banter moment of the season (Rooney)

The Rooney appointment – in the face of all data and logic – surely comes in top billing for banter, but Wazza managed a few moments of his own. From doing karaoke on the Barbican, nights down at the Skiving Scholar, to videos emerging of him showing people around his flat in the early hours and ending up on the front pages of The Sun. The banter kept on coming.

Winner: The Rooney appointment

Redemption arc of the season

Victor Pálsson, emerging from an emblem of the failed Rooney experiment to a key choice at centre-back – and with a wonderful assist for Bundu in the Leeds game – makes him a shoo-in for an Argyle all-time redemption arc.

But shout-outs also to Pleggy for his meteoric rise from the fringes, Ryan Hardie from biblical drought to unstoppable goal machine, and Bundu – who has gone from versatile backup to seemingly one of the Championship’s hottest properties in 10 games.

Winner: Victor Pálsson

Assistant manager of the season

WTF.

Winner: Mike Phelan

Comeback of the season

Being three goals down against Preston to draw 3-3 should make this the ultimate comeback. In a season where Argyle defied form and logic to post countless last-minute goals, this one was special, and Andre Gray could have easily won it 4–3 at the death.

But Sheffield United was something else. After all he’d experienced, did Michael Cooper know deep down that the late winner in front of the Devonport End was inevitable? It looked like it. And the brutal baying of “Cooper, what’s the score?” from a raucous Devonport added an incredible soundscape. Inject it.

Winner: Sheffield United

Thrown under the bus award

This is a monster category in a season of recriminations and blame games at Argyle.

Morgan Whittaker leads the nominations, thrown under the bus by Miron Muslic in the post-Burnley reset, even though logic states his deal must have been done or close to it.

Muslic also chucked the board under the team coach too, for the shambolic lack of planning ahead of the new season and the recruitment team’s record. There was also room for Rami Al Hajj, despite being easily our most talented footballer.

But it wasn’t all Muslic. Steven Schumacher went from Schuey at the wheel to under the wheel, having been interviewed and widely tipped to rejoin Argyle, and then rejected for Muslic at the last minute.

And Simon Hallett went further by jibing: "I'd prefer not to go into comparing Miron with Schuey, it would be unfair on Schuey I think.”

All eyes are on next season.

Winner: Morgan Whittaker

Goal of the season

The ball from Lewis Gibson and the over-the-shoulder finish from Andre Gray make this a clear choice. Special mentions to the sublime finishes from Morgan Whittaker at QPR and Brentford, as well as Cissoko’s tricky finish against Blackburn.

Winner: Andre Gray vs Watford

Player of the season

The great thing about doing an alternative awards list is not having to think too seriously about which player was the least dreadful this season.

Ryan Hardie deserves half an award for being incredible for half the season. Bundu is surely the most improved, while Pleguezuelo was a colossus in a defence that conceded a record-breaking number of goals. Adam Randell showed his class, but also, too often, where his development still needs work.

So the only winner on the Plymouth Argyle teamsheet, for me, was the Green Army.

The highest average attendance in 64 years despite relegation, incredible numbers on the road, and – more often than anyone would care to admit – the driving force behind incredible comebacks, without which we’d have been shockingly bereft of points.

Winner: The Green Army

And so relegation was finally confirmed. A valiant run-in packed full of guts, fight, and even the odd outbreak of watchable football wasn’t enough to survive – but enough to stop total humiliation.

A week ago, I was ready to accept relegation and spend the summer enjoying mild positivity about the improved position of the club, our finances, and the form we showed through the run-in. But there’s something heavy in the pit of my stomach. And it’s the realisation that Argyle’s chaotic banter era may not be over – in fact, if Muslic and his entire coaching staff were to leave, it could only just be beginning.

Apologies for the lack of newsletters these last months. I couldn’t keep up with the “it’s so over/we’re so back” cycle of ups and downs represented by the below meme. The season seemed to make so little sense. How can you write about the absurdity without driving yourself mad?

To me, this relegation hasn’t been about the ceiling of our ability. It’s not because we weren’t good enough to stay in the Championship, it was because of our floor. We were too bad, too often.

Too bad on the pitch. Too bad in the boardroom. Too bad on the training pitch. Across the club, we have failed to execute anything to the required standard of professionalism. Whether it’s Wayne Rooney’s defensive shape sessions and boozy nights out, our interview processes, or handling of staff and contracts. And that last point is now the backdrop to a bizarre drama that’s unfolding between Miron Muslic and the Argyle board.

A war of words has broken out between Muslic – the king of comms and a man who chooses every word with the utmost care – and Andrew Parkinson, whose latest communication has gone down like a Leeds fan in the Devonport End.

And the result of that struggle could make or break the club.

Muslic on the warpath

After 18 months of turmoil, upheaval, shocking decision-making, and barely competent coaching, the board happened upon Miron Muslic.

Muslic’s tenure hasn’t been simple. Legitimate question marks remain over his style of football, results in the run of six-pointers that should have kept Argyle up, and his handling of crucial internal issues. But his points tally and progression in performances speak for themselves. And finally, it feels like we have the coaching set-up and footballing accumen that we deserve.

But under questioning over his future in three successive press conferences, Muslic has gone to war with the board – and for reasons that aren’t completely clear.

His now viral diatribe contained curious, selective facts and contradictions, which make his intentions unclear.

“This is still a hard question for me, not because of the lack of commitment or conviction. I'm still here without the sporting director. I'm still here without the recruitment department. That makes a job for the head coach very, very difficult; that makes success, regardless of the competition, almost impossible. So I would love to answer these questions and to have also clarity from my point of view.

“I believe, and I truly believe, in every strong organisation, regardless of the competition – Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two – you need a triangle of a sporting director, of recruitment and head coach. I'm alone for four months.”

Parking the main crux of his argument, Muslic asserts that he worked “alone for the last four months.”

In a follow-up statement issued by Andrew Parkinson after the final game against Leeds, he rebuffed this point and claimed that the club had supported Muslic with an interim sporting director and recruitment consultants while the search for a full-time replacement continued.

“We are in the final stages of finalising our new structures within the football department and will be able to announce details of this soon.

“We have brought in very experienced external support to assist with recruitment operations during this period of transition. They have been working closely with Miron and the wider football leadership team, and our summer rebuild plans are in a very good place.

“While discussions have taken place with several members of the current squad about extending their time at the club, we recognise that no longer playing in the Championship can add complexity to those conversations. We remain focused on building a competitive squad within that context.”

The inconsistencies continue. In the Leeds pre-match interview, Muslic criticises the club for moving too slowly. In the post-match, he says that he will return straight to his family after the game, and we have “all the time in the world” for contract negotiations and hirings.

In the pre-match presser, Muslic followed up his criticisms by admitting that he and Andrew Parkinson had a productive, “very positive” meal and were looking forward to unveiling news in the coming “days and weeks.” So why drag the club for that very thing? Why make the initial public complaint? Something doesn’t add up.

What are Muslic’s intentions?

The real question is what Muslic is trying to achieve. For a man who chooses his words so carefully, why air these grievances in public?

So there are, in my opinion, a limited number of reasons:

1. A call to arms as defender of the Green Army

Taking comments fully at face value, perhaps it’s genuine frustration at the pace of change and the current state of the club structure. Muslic has firmly put the spotlight on the summer’s challenges. And perhaps we should thank him for that.

I’m certainly not against Muslic demanding higher standards of football governance. It’s been five months, and it seems that interviews for sporting director candidates are ongoing. It’s not good enough.

But we should remember that it was Muslic himself who, allegedly, caused a rift with Jimmy Dickinson. And why not go further in committing your future in that case?

2. Financial posturing

Muslic’s comments have put the Green Army firmly on his side – and in direct conflict with the board and leadership that ultimately presided over this relegation.

Parkinson’s end-of-season letter was met with derision on social media for a lack of culpability for the relegation, and I wager this was intensified by Muslic’s comments.

The vociferous support he now enjoys makes it hard for the board to picture a future without Muslic and his staff. Aside from the perspective of damaging pre-season upheaval (which would be significant) but from fan sentiment. Parkinson and Hallett would experience a full-on fan revolt should Muslic leave. Miron, the king of comms, holds all the cards.

So perhaps this paves the way for Muslic to renegotiate staff wages to Championship levels, or improved terms. It feels like a logical explanation.

3. Preparing an exit

If Muslic’s future is uncertain (odd, given that he is six months into a 3.5-year contract – albeit with the potential for relegation clauses), many see this as the beginning of the end of his tenure.

Is this simply preserving his legacy? Or making his position untenable ahead of a “mutual consent” departure?

Could Muslic be protecting his personal brand, so his legacy becomes that of a man forced out by a club not run to his standards, rather than one who walks away from the challenge?

Hallett and Parkinson can’t afford to lose Muslic

But the upshot is that Hallett and Parkinson can’t afford to lose Muslic and his staff.

With players on run-down or expired contracts, a rebuild is necessary, and the club likely cannot afford to start a new head coach recruitment.

It would be almost impossible to change coach (and potentially style) once again, go through yet another long process, and be in good shape for the season ahead. And that’s bearing in mind that we are currently without a recruitment team, and the scores of other vacancies that have mysteriously appeared in the past few months.

Let’s face it: who has the energy?

Sorry about the lack of newsletters. It’s just all a bit depressing, isn’t it?

I was looking to put pen to paper on a piece about the decision-making that’s led to Argyle’s relegation this season. Yes, I’m calling it – perhaps even hoping to tempt fate a little.

But new comments from, of all people, Ian Foster, could not have come in a more timely fashion, as I looked back on his tenure as a catalyst for the decisions made since.

The longer this slow car crash of a season goes on, the better Ian Foster’s tenure at Argyle looks. The football we’re playing now is largely the same, and mostly producing the same results.

Foster himself has been largely silent on his Argyle reign – until now.

In a Sky Sports interview about English football managers, he opened up slightly on his time at Argyle.

“I wanted to be a number one. I wanted to go into a club somewhere and be a head coach. The Plymouth thing came completely out of the blue. It's what I'd been planning for, you know, that opportunity. I had my eyes wide open. It wasn't the perfect club. They were in the Championship [but] were they ready for it? In terms of player personnel perhaps not. But you back yourself, you know. You look at the project, you listen to the plans of the owner, you hope that the powers that be can see the work that you're doing.

"But it just changes in a blink. I went in the first week of January. The end of January you're nominated for manager month, at the end of March you're out the door. That's hard, you know. It's hard emotionally, it's hard on your family, on your friends. You try and reflect on the whole process, on the decision-making. You challenge yourself. And then the other things. Your phone stops ringing. You go to the house phone and ring your mobile just to make sure it's working. I kind of fell out of love with it for a short time. Didn't want to watch it on TV, didn't want to go to a game, felt as miserable as sin. You beat yourself up [but] you turn the corner and you get ready to go again.”

I feel sorry for Foster, who faced many of the challenges of Rooney and Muslic, but without the patience given to either. And to go somewhat against the grain, it’s the post-Foster decision-making that has been truly problematic.

What happened next

But as written in this newsletter at the time and since, I believe the thought process for the Foster hire was correct.

We saw in the data that we were set to struggle without Azaz and Schumacher, and we made an appointment that suited that reality. That Foster was a rookie, wasn’t backed with players or backroom staff, and was entrusted to change cultural elements of the club and act unchecked was the real wrong step.

But then the thought process becomes hard to follow.

In the wake of Foster’s dismissal and fan anger, Rooney was hired as a “cultural” fit. We can criticise his previous managerial record (terrible), the underlying data (there wasn’t any), and the rumoured unprofessionalism from Birmingham. Those were all red flags that should have been enough to keep Argyle well-clear.

But the style of play is perhaps just as big a question mark. After making the pragmatic step to hire a counter-attacking and defensively-minded coach in Foster, we then flip-flopped back to a possession style with Rooney. There was a brief time (called by me too early) that we looked like we’d mastered Wazball, but tactically it was so one-dimensional that it took one international break to work us out, and we never recovered.

After Rooney was sacked (and Dewsnip removed) we still broke our transfer record for Baidoo, despite not being well-suited for Muslic’s style of play.

We had to rip up our transfer plans and start over for Muslic profile players, and we still exited the window with a half-baked squad, unable to implement his style effectively. Dire on-field performances, driven by an attack that is plentiful in numbers yet completely unable to function without Ryan Hardie, does not seem the result of joined-up thinking.

In three transfer windows, we have flip-flopped between two styles, and still not managed to assemble a squad fit to play either.

And it might not end there.

Next is the question about whether Muslic’s style of football can translate to League One. Performances against weaker teams in the division have been worrying. We cannot seem to perform when we have more than 25% possession. So how would that translate to League One, when we should, on paper, be one of the top teams in the league? Muslicball feels like underdog football – fine for the Championship, but what about trying to win League One?

And if it doesn’t work, and we make another change, will we be suited to the next manager’s style of play?

I like Muslic and everything he represents. I think everyone does. But when we’ve fallen into every seemingly obvious bear trap for the past six months – are we about to make another wrong step?

And at 16:55 on 9 February, Miron Muslic’s “proof of life” exploded into something with a life of its own.

The faint pulse of Sunderland became a crackling surge of electricity around Home Park. It fizzed around the ground, as even through nine painful minutes of injury time, the Devonport End bounced. Then, as Conor Hazard finally raked the ball upfield after his second game-winning intervention, that fizz became a roar.

It was a kind of accumulated static, each person charging it from a different source. For many, it came from the thousands of miles of travel and misery racked up over the last year. For others, the relentless rollercoaster of hope, belief, and disappointment. And for so many, the memories of lost family and friends who would have dearly loved to see a day like this. For me, it was a deep pride in our club and city — the kind that swells in your chest and catches in your throat.

For everyone present or watching at home, the moment meant something different.

And it was all the sweeter because we deserved it.

Liverpool came for an easy run-out. Instead, they walked into a cauldron of noise against a team that had come to fight.

Under Miron, we were tactically superior (as even Slot admitted). Our fans were superior. And our energy and desire were unmatched.

My intention for this newsletter is simply to mark the occasion, without adding unnecessary analysis or looking beyond the achievement. I’m sure everyone has watched every interview and F-Bomb already, but I’ve compiled a list of reading below as some kind of keepsake.

Beating Liverpool is a huge moment in the club’s history. Whether we survive this season or not is irrelevant. It stands alone—nothing can take that away.

But nothing exists in isolation. While those emotions will never be forgotten, this must be a catalyst for league survival.

And all too quickly, all eyes are on a seriously tough game against Millwall. I’m still not sure I believe — but this weekend is a reminder that anything is possible.

Some bookmarks and reading

• An excellent Pilgrims Podcast (props to Tom who got the tone so right 🍔) (link)

• A superb Argyle Analysis with Aaron Cusack (Argyle TV)

• This thread on Muslic’s tactics (X.com)

• How astute tactician Miron Muslic inspired Plymouth to historic upset (The Times)

• David Squires on … Liverpool’s sacrificial offerings meeting their end in Plymouth (The Guardian)

• Plymouth, Exeter and the football wilderness where Liverpool came unstuck (The Athletic)

• Plymouth Owner Simon Hallett on Unfinished Business (The NY Times)

• Miron Muslic: ‘Real life is a lot more difficult than playing a football game’ (The Guardian)

• The D Fence (X.com)

• The team photo

• Argyle WFC celebrating on the coach

On 22 January 2025 at 20:45 Plymouth Argyle hit rock bottom.

A 12-month spiral of poor decision-making, terrible timing, and a healthy dose of bad luck came to a head in 45 minutes of car-crash football. And the facade of a well-run club burned.

Miron Muslic, the man appointed after Wayne Rooney was sacked weeks too late, watched on as his squad — that had no time to implement his ideas and was poorly suited to his style of play — played a half of football devoid of fight and heart.

At the same time Argyle’s talisman, Morgan Whittaker, watched from the stands as he agitated for seemingly any move away from Home Park. Argyle adrift at the bottom of the table, mentally relegated in January, and unable to attract new signings — things could scarcely get any worse.

Proof of Life

What followed might be a better measure of Muslic than promises of immense physical output or league heroics in Belgium.

Before I go on, I want to remind everyone that there’s no director of football at the club currently, and famously, according to X.com, “no football people on the board.” So it can only be inferred that Muslic is pulling the strings himself. And I believe that fact makes things even more impressive.

The day before the Burnley debacle Adin Osmanbasic and Eddie Lattimore, Muslic confident from Cercle Brugge, joined the club. While they must have been startled by what they saw at Burnley, it at least would have laid bare the challenge ahead.

The Transfer Window

As soon as the final whistle went, there started the unceremonious binning of Morgan Whittaker. Yes, the price was disappointing — but it’s clear to most people that he had to leave the club.

Whether Muslic spoke the truth about Whittaker in that press conference, something was lost in translation, or he purposely bent it in an act of immense psychological calculus, he took our star player out back and publicly shot him — uniting the fanbase in the process. Muslic then took an axe to the established first XI for Sunderland, and with the help of his backroom staff, finally got a tune out of the squad.

Say what you like about Rooney’s or Foster’s appointment, but desire, intensity, and application (or lack thereof) have been themes of each manager’s excuses. It was interesting that it took Muslic two games to make the same observations.

But he’s been far more proactive in solving it.

Muslic has overseen Whittaker and Cissoko’s exit, which takes some stones given our horrendous lack of creativity. But it seems he wants to replace flair with hard work. And there’s one big-name player I was surprised not to see out of the door with them.

Remembering that there’s no DoF in place, it seems Muslic has led us to an excellent overhaul of the defensive unit, with Niko Katic, Maksym Talovyerov, and Puchacz all looking the real deal.

But What About Attack?

Like any fan, I’d like to have seen more attacking signings. But one point I’ve not seen made is that beyond the clamour for “more attacking options,” we already have *loads* of attacking players for three positions.

Hardie, Tijani, and Obafemi all line up for the centre spot of the three. Bundu can play there too, and wide right (and is actually good at it). Muslic also likes Hardie there. That’s before we get to Al Hajj, Baidoo, and Wright all fighting it out for the other spot.

Yes, Wright is all energy and lacks quality; Al Hajj lacks energy but has quality; Baidoo doesn’t fit the system (yet, although I think he will); Hardie’s form has been poor (but is turning); Tijani isn’t fit or proven (yet). I could go on.

But it’s a rotten combination of gambler’s fallacy and blind optimism to say that someone like Allesana Jatta plucked out of League Two, or a loanee from a team in our league, will hit the ground running in the Championship immediately. In a team that doesn’t produce that many chances. Especially when God-knows-how-many years have proven that it barely happens.

My gut says that our best bets now are the players Muslic knows and is already working with.

And that’s backed up by a couple of comments:

Joe Edwards commented on Sky that Muslic was yet to turn his eye to attacking patterns, which hints that more cohesive play is coming.

And in a revealing translation of a Deadline Day interview between Puchacz and Meczyki YouTube Channel (by PAFC Polska) it seems the best is yet to come:"

“The coach is very demanding and generally, we've only had one week of training. It was only now before West Brom that we had an entire microcycle. I would actually start judging his work from this match against West Brom — for me, he has a record of 1-0"

‘He has a cool vision, I like what he implements in training, how he wants to do it, you can't hide that it shares a lot with German football - the intensity, the duels.”

After the draw at Sunderland was described as “proof of life,” a performance of spirit and backbone, driven by our new energy at the back and the old guard through the middle produced something not seen enough since Muslic took charge: spirit, desire and fight.

It’s too early to call this a turning point. We’ve seen these come and go this season. But given where we were two weeks ago — it feels bigger. And maybe I can just think about facing up to Liverpool this Sunday.

On 1 February 2025 at 14:15, Plymouth Argyle showed a pulse.

And it might just have got me dreaming (if not believing) that this team can surprise once again.

It’s never a dull day at Plymouth Argyle. Managerless and without an away win since March, this team that never says die goes and pulls off a shock win at Brentford and gets a dream tie at home to Liverpool. Like you, I’ve watched the goal nearly 50 times and swallowed down the lump in my throat at Nance’s passion and interviews.

Just 24 hours earlier, Argyle had shocked us all once again—this time by overlooking Steven Schumacher in favour of former Cercle Brugge coach Miron Muslic.

As precisely nobody who reads this newsletter knew before Tuesday, he was the adored head coach of Cercle. Muslic dragged them from the bottom of the table to qualify for European football before being controversially sacked last month.

I was ready to write a sceptical newsletter, tempering the possibility of Muslic keeping us up. I’ve certainly been guilty of adopting, after initial reservations, a glass-half-full approach to recent appointments. And it seems the exact moment I get won over, it all blows up in my face.

But here I am again, fully invested and ready to be hurt again after Muslic’s Churchillian welcome speech, which is currently going viral on social media. And I’m even willing to put this out before we play Oxford—which is incredibly stupid.

Let’s see what he’s all about.

Why Muslic?

Speaking to figures within the club, the words “A fresh start” were telling. I’m someone who doesn’t like to see football managers return. It’s never as good the second time, and Schumacher could never have lived up to the glory of the promotion season.

It was also clear to decision-makers that possession-based football was not working for us. So Muslic’s brand of counter-pressing football, played high up the pitch, swarming the opposition to turn over the ball in dangerous positions was hugely appealing to the board.

It’s very similar to Foster’s philosophy. The fact is, Muslic is the kind of hire we should have made when we hired Foster. The ethos around Foster was correct, but he was, in effect, a Poundland Muslic—without the experience of putting these ideas into practice or the charisma to win over players and fans.

One could argue that Foster also didn’t have the skill as a coach to implement these ideas, because Argyle rarely pressed with the intensity required. Whether that was down to the players or the coach, we will find out when Muslic has a go.

You can read this excellent synopsis of Muslic’s style and football at Total Football Analysis. In short, it will mean launching the ball from deep to hit the forwards early, aggressive counter-pressing as a unit, high-intensity “swarming” of the ball, narrowing the pitch, and boxing the opposition in so they can’t play through you.

Looking around football, direct attacking football is the hallmark of teams punching above their weight — and both Forest and Bournemouth are bamboozling more expensively-assembled teams in the Premier League using that style.

And Muslic will focus on making us difficult to play against. In his address to the players he said: “It will be hard, annoying, and sh*t to play against us.”

The worry is that this football could become hoofy and easy for the opposition—exactly what we saw under Foster. Cercle Brugge’s stats show low pass completion and low possession, but they were devastatingly effective. That needs to be replicated quickly—and that will be challenging.

The Problems

Being an incredible orator doesn’t hide the fact that the squad doesn’t *seem* suited to playing an aggressive press. I’d love to be surprised by this, but none of the squad has shown any aptitude for high-pressing football thus far. Is that down to poor coaching? Or are the players not suited? We will find out.

It was Dominik Thalhammer, Muslic’s predecessor who set the direction of football for Cercle Brugge, but it was Muslic who made it a success. Players were recruited for that style and were already in place and playing the system when Muslic was appointed. At Argyle, he inherits a squad assembled for a completely different purpose and one that’s in a state of flux. So it’s reasonable to presume that it could take longer to implement his style. That’s time we don’t have. And it’s for that reason that I feel that while the future is brighter with Muslic, Schumacher would have a greater chance at keeping us up this season.

Muslic now finds himself with three games in 11 days. That’s the same situation Foster faced when trying to implement something similar. To his credit, Muslic sounds as if he’s pragmatic enough to start slowly. He’s already stated that simple messages are required in the short term, and that he will try to make the team compact and hard to play through, as well as push higher up the pitch to give the front line the best chance of scoring goals.

High-press football requires high levels of fitness. But across the front line, we have a host of players returning from injury and fitness levels are already depleted.

Whittaker’s injury was less serious, but he still had a month out of the team. Cissoko and Hardie are also returning from multiple injuries—in Ibi’s case, a serious one.

Al Hajj and Baidoo are fit, so they will be important. Baidoo looked very athletic, but I’ll be interested to see how Al Hajj’s languid style fits into an intense press.

And then there’s the transfer speculation over key players.

Muslic’s impressive aura and the post-Brentford buzz give him a perfect start. I also believe, like the club, that we do have a squad capable of pulling off a great escape.

But a quick look at the relegation odds shows us what Simon Hallett will see, as an investment guy. Statistically, we’re nailed on to go down and we probably will. Muslic gives us the chance to come back as a better Championship to fulfill the five-year plan.

Whatever happens, I just hope we show the heart and fight along the way.

And that’s the end of the Rooney experiment, as weeks of inevitability come to pass.

It’s been tough to find time to write about the current state of Argyle. The congested calendar has meant a change in the situation every couple of days. I was at the Middlesbrough game and felt the first half was one of the best performances of the 2024 calendar year—two weeks later at the foot of the table, all hope felt lost.

The ‘Boro game was bookended by appalling away performances, a lack of character on the pitch, zero leadership or ideas, a lack of tactical clarity, and mounting injuries.

But rumours online painted a darker picture. They pointed to an alleged lack of professionalism and standards throughout the camp, much of which would explain the on-field problems. #RooneyOut was the only outcome.

I’ve been working up a piece (that I will still write soon) on the unanswerable questions around Argyle and Rooney since his appointment.

What exactly was the underlying data that showed that Rooney was a good fit as manager? Why were we the right club to champion his career? Why were we so wedded to it working?

The truth is, as I have written many times, that Rooney was an appointment designed to unite the fans and club after Foster. His strengths were his warm nature and candour, which certainly did unite fans and the club and was present even up to his classy departure.

But October’s sudden uptick in form masked terrible underlying data. And it seems that Rooney’s weaknesses—a lack of attention to detail, and seemingly the standards needed to keep a squad fit and firing—were slowly ebbing away at the set-up.

All the concerns about his appointment at the start came true. And huge questions need to be answered by decision-makers.

Who was overseeing the standards of training and discipline within the squad? Who at the executive and board level is accountable for the (apparent) circus at the playing level?

Removal of the manager will not be enough this time. There was a need for self-reflection and scrutiny after Foster; now there needs to be a complete overhaul of the structure and accountability of this football club.

There’s a time and place for discussion of who will come next. A hasty newsletter penned on NYE isn’t it. I second Mark Lovell in the case for Steven Schumacher to finish what he started—but we have to be realistic that the reality on the ground isn’t even that appealing for him now.

We are overwhelming 1/10 favorites to be relegated. One eye needs to be on a manager who can rebuild this squad, as well as giving us a chance to stay up. We have incoming investment (allegedly), a good XI, and more home games than away to play this season.

But escape this time would truly be the greatest of escapes.

Apologies for the lack of newsletters this past few weeks. As soon as I assumed to give my seal of approval to Project Wazza, it all went south. And while we’ve experienced some magic moments at Home Park, the performances have been dire, and the past week wasn’t even that good.

It’s hard to run a newsletter in the Championship when often three games in eight days can change the picture so rapidly.

Back in my last newsletter, I asked to see evidence of addressing our shortcomings. What we’ve seen has been a scattergun approach to personnel, formation, systems, and style of play from one game to the next.

While the board has backed Rooney — and Simon Hallett stated he will be supported — these next two home games are huge. Lose them, and lose them with the kind of tepid disorganization seen in recent matches, and I imagine that will be short-lived.

I have my own thoughts on the current challenges, and the revelations from this week. But today I’m turning One Team In Devon over to Mark Lovell, from Pilgrims Pod, on his ideas for what’s next. It might not be to everyone’s tastes — but I’d love to see a response in the comments.

James

Wayne Rooney's tenure at Plymouth Argyle is teetering on the brink following a disastrous week that has left the Pilgrims languishing near the bottom of the Championship table.

Back-to-back humiliations—6-1 at Norwich City and 4-0 at Bristol City—have heaped immense pressure on Rooney, raising serious doubts about his ability to salvage Argyle’s season and his own managerial career.

The shambolic nature of these away defeats, regular defensive collapses, and the inability to register a single shot against Leeds earlier this month have intensified scrutiny of his managerial approach.

While Argyle’s away form has been dismal, their home performances—though yielding precious points—have been largely unconvincing since the excellent win against Luton in October.

The late win over Portsmouth and the last-gasp escape acts against Preston and Watford, while celebrated, arguably flattered the team.

Fans are growing increasingly aware that even Argyle's "better" results don’t reflect a team capable of performing at the level required to sustain Championship survival. A serious look at the underlying data on Argyle this season tells its own story: by most metrics, Argyle are the worst team in the division.

Therefore, the upcoming home fixtures against Oxford United and Swansea City are pivotal for Rooney’s future. While the ongoing injury crisis, including the absence of key player Morgan Whittaker, provides some mitigation, another humiliating loss—especially to fellow relegation strugglers Oxford—could render Rooney’s position untenable.

Amid this turmoil, whispers of a potential return for Steven Schumacher offer hope.

While controversial, for many, his return would represent a pragmatic solution to the mounting crisis and a chance for the Pilgrims to rediscover the stability that characterised his tenure.

Fan discontent is growing as Argyle’s weaknesses, particularly defensively, remain unaddressed. Simon Hallett, the club’s chairman, publicly backed Rooney during a Cornish Supporters' Association forum, stating:

"We are not thinking about getting rid of him… but are discussing how we can support him."

However, the dreaded "vote of confidence" rarely reassures in football. It evokes memories of Ian Foster last Easter—where public backing was swiftly followed by his dismissal.

The Schuey fits

Schumacher’s departure to Stoke City last season (via helicopter) was a bitter pill for Argyle fans to swallow. It fractured relationships within the club, particularly with Director of Football Neil Dewsnip.

Yet, time heals most wounds, and it is understood that any lingering tensions and animosity have now been resolved. Schumacher is thought to be open to the idea of returning to Home Park.

During his time at Argyle, Schumacher delivered not only results but also a sense of identity. His tactical acumen and rapport with players helped the team achieve cohesion and success—qualities sorely missing under Rooney’s reign. Currently available, Schumacher remains the ideal candidate to reignite the Pilgrims’ fortunes.

Naysayers will point out that Schumacher inherited a squad he had helped to shape, knew intimately, and which was tailor-made to his style of play.

However, after an initial rocky period at Stoke, he transformed a team (albeit of better quality players) into a well-drilled attacking unit, guiding them to safety in short order. Schumacher has shown he can work with struggling squads and implement his ideas swiftly.

Another concern is that Schumacher would inherit the same injury and personnel challenges as Rooney. Yet Schumacher’s acumen is proven, and he would likely make more of this squad, reversing the dreadful attacking stats far quicker than the current figurehead.

Steven Schumacher’s return could provide the reset that Plymouth Argyle so desperately needs. His past Championship-winning success at Home Park offers a proven blueprint for navigating the current crisis. Schumacher’s familiarity with the club could restore confidence and unity during these turbulent times.

However, for a second stint to succeed, Schumacher must address the emotional fallout from his departure. Acknowledging the hurt caused and explaining his renewed commitment to Argyle could transform apprehension into optimism.

While Rooney has a fleeting opportunity to reverse his fortunes, Schumacher’s shadow looms large over Home Park.

In football, timing is everything. For Argyle, now may be the perfect moment for a reunion with a proven leader who can guide them out of peril and back onto a stable path.

What a difference an international break makes. As the players took a rest for the round of international fixtures, I waxed lyrical here about how Argyle had all the ingredients for success they needed — and wondered how far they could go.

We then published a statistical overview of the evolving features of Rooney-ball and how Argyle were changing in terms of style and performance. Hours later, we were thrashed by a hungry Cardiff team — and one that had worked out our significant weaknesses.

Now it looks so different. Fragile confidence has been smashed, an injury crisis, and dismal performances that have looked Fosterian in their stodginess. Sitting down to watch these last few games has required mental fortitude and in the case of Leeds, mind-bending drugs.

I finished my overtly positive newsletter with the words “if we can keep players fit.” Almost immediately, a generational injury crisis exposed this squad’s soft underbelly, and while we have a good XI of Championship quality, we are now very light.

A story of three breaks

We’re heading for another international break, which means that the season so far can be broken down into three chunks. And there’s a story to each:

Part 1: Blooding in

The first section of the season was difficult. New players off the pace, and a new manager and style. It took time for Argyle to find their way of playing, but slowly, improved performances saw Rooney steady the ship.

Part 2: The surprise package

Adaptations made over the break led to some excellent performances. Aided and abetted by playing good teams who felt they could roll us over. Sunderland, Luton, and Blackburn were dispatched at home by an Argyle that played — and were allowed to play — free-flowing, attacking Wazball. But there was a storm brewing.

Part 3: Found out

The next opponents are key to what’s happened this break. Cardiff, Millwall, and Preston are all experienced Championship sides that did their homework on us. Unlike Sunderland, Burnley, and Blackburn, they were willing to adapt their play to stop us.

It’s clear that while Rooney got us playing an increasingly possession-based system and playing out from the back, we are one-dimensional. With only a handful of rotations to get the ball out from the back, Adam Randell and our midfielders have found themselves in a war zone of bodies, with Portsmouth employing a 4-1-3-2 to pack the midfield.

Each team has employed a strategy to smother the middle, and we have been unable to respond. It’s worrying to me that after Millwall, if not Cardiff, we haven’t worked out a way to play out of this style of smothering press.

Jordan Houghton alluded to this post-Portsmouth and said that the players couldn’t find a way around the press until halftime. What followed was a long-ball strategy that saw Obafemi and Wright hassle the backline with launches from deep.

It was effective, if brutal. I’m still not sure why we don’t take the option to play wider with overlapping fullbacks. In the Preston and Portsmouth games, we seemed to routinely ignore the option to find width and allowed dangerous turnovers by battering our way through the middle until Rooney signaled to go direct. Both times, that strategy was highly effective, once we’d endured long periods of turgid football.

The away day curse

The next factor is the away day curse. The numbers are stark, and it’s insane we’ve only managed to score one away goal all season and turned in horrific performances at Wednesday, Cardiff, and Leeds.

The Derby game this Saturday is massive. But for me, it’s about how Rooney sets us up.

It cannot be refuted that the current strategy is not working away from home. Carrying on regardless is unlikely to suddenly render a meaningful change.

Rooney said himself that Derby are a team that likes to press high, and they will undoubtedly set themselves up to smother our play.

But will we pre-empt that? Will we go direct from the start? Will we change our style and play with width? Will we throw out what seems to be a broken system (away from home) and go with a 3-4-3? Will we change anything at all?

Rooney has shown a willingness to adapt in the past, but not in the last few games. But I’m personally looking for answers to the questions posed in the past four games – how can we overcome teams pressing us high? Can we adapt in-game?

All eyes are on Pride Park.

Finally, let’s all appreciate this Argyle Memes tweet…

Welcome to another special stats edition of One Team In Devon with super football analyst and statistician Alberto Lauciello.

The last time we did one of these, we took apart Ian Foster’s Argyle – and used the results to show how Argyle had deteriorated in their attacking play.

This time out we’re looking at a different set of data.

The aim of this newsletter is to understand how this Argyle team is evolving under Rooney.

Buy Alberto a Coffee: https://ko-fi.com/lauce44

And due to the time constraints of Alberto and I getting this done around family, work and kids, this has landed closer to the Cardiff game than we’d have liked. But regardless of what happened at Cardiff, the stats are to be looked at in context over the long term. One game deviations need to be looked at in context.

We’ve seen a gradual improvement in the team over the course of the first nine games – but what is driving that?

Let’s dig in.

Improving defending

An early problem for Argyle was conceding big chances – but that is showing signs of steady improvement.

A "big chance" is typically defined as a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, often involving 1v1 situations with the goalkeeper or a clear shot on goal from close range.

The above shows a timeline of Argyle's matches including league and cup fixtures (notably, there's an EFL Cup game against Watford on August 27th).

The dashed green trendline shows the overall trend of big chances conceded over time.

After a poor start, where Argyle allowed several big chances in their first few matches, the chart reflects a significant improvement in their defense. Fewer clear goal-scoring opportunities are conceded, implying better defensive organization and structure under Rooney.

The spike in big chances conceded against West Brom (September 21st) seems to be an outlier in an otherwise positive trend.

But we need to look at this in context – because defensively Argyle are still not amongst the strongest in the division.

Improving defence – but within context

To stop the opposition from creating big chances, you need to stop them from entering the penalty area and getting into the “red zone” where most goals are scored.

The above chart tracks the ratio of opponent touches in the penalty box as a percentage of total opponent touches in the defensive third.

As you can see, Argyle’s early season performances allowed opponents into the box at a far higher rate. And worryingly, to an extent hauntingly similar to that of a relegation team.

After the international break before the Sunderland game, you can see a huge drop in the rate at which Argyle allowed opponents into the box. That marries up with the systemic change that saw an extra man in midfield, progressing away from the 4-4-2 – and that trend has continued.

Argyle are progressing towards the average for the league, which would help solidify a mid-table finish. But you can also see how fragile that can be.

A changing style of play

OK, this one needs some explaining.

The graph above shows that Argyle’s style of play had evolved over the season so far.

In early games, Argyle were a vertical team. That meant that a high percentage of passes were progressive – up the pitch. Over time that has changed, with vertical progressive passes making up fewer and fewer of our passing range.

What does that mean? Low verticality means you’re passing side-to-side, and that is indicative of a possession-based team.

In the early part of the season, Argyle struggled to get attacking players on the ball – possibly because of their verticality. So as they have moved to an increasingly possession-based style, it has enabled them to get players into better positions. It should be noted, however, that we are not (yet) truly a possession-based team.

There are a few factors here: Al Hajj is an obvious one, but so is Grimshaw – and Argyle have played out from the back better with him in the side. That would certainly account for a sudden increase in horizontal passes. That has also enabled Randell to pump in some incredible performances.

As you can see – Argyle are far from becoming a Pep side, and have only moved under the league average for verticality. But it’s a pronounced change.

Argyle’s improved attacking prowess

This chart focuses on Argyle's improved attacking of the opponent’s penalty box under Wayne Rooney's management. Here's a breakdown of the key elements.

It’s the same premise as the graph earlier, showing the percentage of our touches in the attacking third occurring within the opponents’ penalty box.

Argyle have always been around the league average for the percentage of touches in the opponent’s box – even if we appeared toothless in the early season games.

It looks to be getting better – slowly. But there are big swings in our attacking performances, even in games we’ve won (Sunderland). And noticeable swings in terms of how much we enter the box.

Set piece woes

Despite recent improvements, Argyle still face significant challenges when it comes to set-pieces.

Our xG (expected goals) difference from set pieces paints a clear picture: we’ve consistently been outperformed by our opponents both in creating and defending chances from dead-ball situations.

Argyle are:

• Last in the League for xG from set pieces, having generated just 0.95 expected goals so far this season.

• 23rd in shots from set-piece actions, with only 18 shots resulting from these situations.

• On the defensive side, we rank 21st for xGA (expected goals against) from set pieces, conceding an alarming 4.14xGA (the 4th worst in the league).

• Worse still, we’ve allowed the most shots in the league from conceded set pieces, with opponents taking a staggering 52 shots.

While we’re slowly improving in this area, there’s clearly still a long way to go. Set pieces remain an area of concern, and better organization and execution will be crucial as we push for more consistent performances across the board.